Finland electricity without Russia — five years of structural change
In May 2022, Finland suddenly lost about 10 percent of its electricity imports when RAO Nordic stopped supplies. Four years later, the situation is stable: OL3 nuclear reactor produces 1,600 MW, wind power has grown six-fold, and Aurora interconnector opens new possibilities. A remarkable story of market resilience.
Four years ago, on May 14, 2022, when RAO Nordic stopped supplying electricity to Finland, many feared what would come next. Finland imported roughly 10–11 percent of its electricity from Russia at the time. Markets anticipated possible shortages or skyrocketing prices. Four years on, the verdict is clear: supply and demand worked precisely. New generation capacity arrived exactly when needed, at competitive prices.
What happened in May 2022?
Finland's Russian electricity imports are documented by Fingrid's open statistics and Energy Authority reports. Through 2021, Finland imported roughly 3–4 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually from Russia, about 10 percent of domestic demand. Cables ran both DC and AC lines. Then came the Ukraine crisis, and on May 14, 2022, RAO Nordic shut down all supply.
It was total — not gradual reduction but immediate halt. Many power analysts predicted chaos. But it didn't happen. I think this proved Finland's electricity markets and infrastructure were robust and attractive enough to investors that replacement occurred quickly at competitive cost.
OL3: 1,600 megawatts from a single reactor
The first major replacement came within months. TVO (Teollisuuden Voima) had prepared Olkiluoto Unit 3 (OL3) after eight years of delays and overruns. The reactor went online in April 2023. Its rated output is 1,600 megawatts, equivalent to roughly 14 terawatt-hours annually at full capacity. It doesn't run at maximum every hour—maintenance and testing continue—but 2025 data shows clearly: OL3 generated over 10 TWh in the first two quarters and early third quarter alone.
Quick math: Russia's loss was roughly 3–4 TWh. OL3 produces 14 TWh. Mathematically, Finland didn't just replace the loss; it overshot. What followed?
Wind power: over 9,400 megawatts installed
The second change shows in wind generation. Finland's Renewable Energy Association's 2025 statistics show wind capacity reached 9,433 megawatts by year-end 2025. Three years prior, in 2022, capacity was just under 4,000 MW. That is a near-doubling in under three years.
This would not have happened without market incentives and Energy Authority support. Every new wind farm requires environmental review and local negotiation. Yet they rose quickly. Why? Because prices spiked nearly immediately when Russian imports ceased in spring 2022, and higher prices made wind investment profitable.
Aurora interconnector and new Nordic links
The third piece is infrastructure. Fingrid had long planned Aurora, a DC link between Finland and Sweden adding 900 megawatts of transmission capacity. Originally targeted for 2025. Now, in 2026, Aurora operates, giving Finland access to Swedish hydropower and wind surplus whenever it exists.
This is grid intelligence the system needed. Aurora alone doesn't resolve import loss, but it makes the wider Nordic energy system more flexible.
What this means for a household bill
Concretely: a two-person detached house consuming roughly 18,000 kWh annually (older construction, heat pump used only winter). In 2021, when Russian imports still flowed, Nord Pool FI-area average was roughly 5.0 cents/kWh. Add transmission costs (about 4.0 cents/kWh) and electricity tax (2.3 cents/kWh), and the annual bill was around 2,150–2,200 euros before other charges.
By 2024, post-market stabilization, the same family paid roughly 4.5–5.0 cents/kWh for spot energy. Slightly lower than 2021. Price rises came mostly from fuel taxes and indirect levies, whose share grew as energy costs fell temporarily.
"Why didn't electricity get cheaper when Russian imports stopped? Finland got power from nuclear, wind, and other sources. Prices haven't risen as fast as before the crisis—a sign the markets worked efficiently."
Discussion forum question, April 2025
This is the right question. The answer: supply-side relief offset demand pressure, but other factors (economic cycles, inflation, renewable volatility) kept prices meaningfully elevated.
Is Finland now a net exporter?
Here's a twist. In 2024, Finland became a net exporter in several months. Fingrid's monthly reports show spring and autumn, when wind and hydropower abound, Finland exported power to Sweden and neighbors. This hadn't occurred regularly in decades.
Export means production exceeds demand. That's not a problem—it's adaptation. Low prices drive industry consumption. Data centers open (energy-intensive). Markets seek balance.
What happens next?
Russian electricity imports will not return. That is fact and long-term policy for Finland. Four years ago, the question was whether new reactors, wind, and lines would suffice. Today it is: what about surplus and price volatility?
I believe Finland has succeeded remarkably. Nuclear and wind aren't competitors but complements. Wind blows nights and winter; nuclear runs 24/7 baseline; hydropower flexes with load. This triangle underpins one of Europe's most stable electricity systems.
Sources
- Fingrid: Electricity market data and statistics (Tier A)
- Energy Authority: Official electricity statistics and reports (Tier A)
- Teollisuuden Voima: OL3 reactor specifications and commissioning (Tier A)
- Finland's Renewable Energy Association: 2025 wind statistics — 9,433 MW installed (Tier A)
- Nord Pool: Market pricing and historical averages (Tier A)
- Fingrid 2022: Statement on cessation of Russian imports (Tier A)
- Fingrid: Aurora interconnector to Sweden — 900 MW capacity (Tier A)