Are Finns switching back to fixed electricity contracts? The spot price shift 2023–2026
Finland's electricity market is transforming. Fixed-rate contracts are gaining ground whilst spot pricing loses appeal. We explore why many households are reconsidering spot pricing and when switching actually makes financial sense.
Finland's electricity contract market is witnessing a striking trend: spot pricing dominance is weakening whilst fixed-rate contracts make a comeback. Data from the Finnish Energy Authority (Energiavirasto) shows that roughly one-third of households held spot contracts at the market peak in 2023, but by early 2026 this share had fallen from approximately 33 per cent to just 25 per cent. Simultaneously, fixed-rate contracts have climbed from around one-quarter to nearly 45 per cent of the market. This shift is significant, revealing deep-rooted anxieties and calculation errors that plague spot pricing adoption.
What happened to Finland's electricity contracts between 2023 and 2026?
High electricity prices and unpredictable price volatility forced many Finnish households to make critical decisions. During the winter of 2022–2023, spot electricity prices reached extraordinary levels — Nord Pool FI prices temporarily spiked to nearly €500 per megawatt-hour. Many consumers who had switched to spot contracts in 2021–2022 hoping to save money experienced genuine shock. Rather than reassess with spreadsheets, they retreated into fear.
The Finnish Energy Authority's reporting demonstrates that contract switching is largely reactive: crises restore fixed-rate contracts to favour. By late 2023, when prices stabilised, many households were already locked into long-term fixed contracts at 7–9 cents per kilowatt-hour. That was a sensible decision at the time. Now, in 2026, when spot pricing's long-term average has fallen back to Nord Pool FI's annual average of 5–6 cents per kilowatt-hour, those contracts appear expensive by comparison.
Olkiluoto Unit 3 (OL3) began full-capacity production in February 2023, injecting 1,600 megawatts of generation capacity into Finland's grid. This significantly reduced price pressure. Additionally, the Aurora Line interconnection to Sweden opened in November 2025, introducing 900 megawatts of transmission capacity and freezing prices at lower levels. Together, these two factors explain why spot pricing's appeal has resurged.
"Switching back to spot pricing feels foolish when I remember what I paid in winter 2023. I cannot take that risk again."
Suomi24 forum user, electricity section 2025
This comment distils the psychology of many Finnish households: they switch contracts based on fear rather than analytical rigour. It is among the costliest mistakes in market behaviour.
Why are consumers reconsidering fixed contracts?
Fresh headlines about spot pricing have again stirred uncertainty. The Finnish Energy Authority and grid operator Fingrid warn of potential price spikes after winter 2025–2026, as wind power generation across Northern Europe remains volatile. Rapid adoption of electric vehicles is also driving peak-load increases. Moreover, many contracts locked in at fixed rates during 2023–2024 are expiring in 2026–2027, at which point new fixed-contract rates stand higher than the long-term average.
Discussion threads on Murobbs (a Finnish energy forum) highlight a question drawing attention away from compelling spot-pricing advertisements:
"Is it worth switching away from spot pricing now? My bill is stuck at 9–10 cents on a fixed contract, and I'm worried prices will climb this winter."
Murobbs forum user, energy section 2025
This anxiety is far too common. A fixed contract at 9–10 cents is still an excellent deal over the long run because it eliminates all upside price risk. Even if spot prices rise 20–25 per cent during winter, the fixed rate's certainty wins out. A two-year fixed contract at 8.5 cents remains the superior choice over spot pricing if you are unwilling to track prices actively.
When does spot pricing win?
Yet there are scenarios where spot pricing genuinely triumphs. They are highly specific and require active load management.
First scenario: summer and spring-oriented consumption. From December through April, spot pricing typically costs more; from May through September, prices fall materially. If you charge an electric vehicle overnight during summer at 2–5 a.m., when rates are 6–8 cents, and your fixed contract rate is 8 cents, annual savings could reach €1,000–€1,500 through disciplined behaviour.
Second scenario: exploiting zero-price and negative-price hours. Nord Pool FI recorded approximately 447 hours of zero or negative prices in 2025. At negative prices, grid operators actually pay you to consume electricity. Spot contracts capture this benefit. Fixed contracts offer nothing.
Third scenario: on-site generation and solar panels. Household solar installations typically produce during spot pricing's cheapest hours. If you own solar and subscribe to spot pricing, you can export surplus at peak price windows.
When does fixed pricing win?
Fixed contracts prevail in these circumstances:
Winter and peak demand: When cold forces heat pumps and electric heating to run at maximum output, spot prices climb sharply. On a fixed contract, you pay an identical rate year-round. On spot pricing, you might pay 20–30 per cent more during peak winter demand.
Unpredictable consumption: If your household cannot time large loads to coincident with low-price windows, a fixed contract provides stability. This is spot pricing's greatest weakness: it demands active engagement and sophisticated planning.
Peace of mind and psychological wellbeing: Many Finns value knowing their electricity bill in advance. Fixed rates offer complete predictability. This psychological value is not trivial — emotional state influences decision-making quality.
A typical Finnish household: 5,000 kWh annually
For a typical Finnish household consuming roughly 5,000 kilowatt-hours per year (Statistics Finland baseline), cost differences are material.
Fixed contract at 8.5 c/kWh plus VAT of 25.5% (Finnish Energy Authority, 2026):
- Annual energy: 5,000 kWh × 8.5 c = €425
- VAT addition: €425 × 25.5% = €108.38
- Electricity tax plus transmission fee (average): ~€600
- Annual total: ~€1,133
Spot pricing at 6.0 c/kWh average (2025 Nord Pool FI mean):
- Annual energy: 5,000 kWh × 6.0 c = €300
- VAT addition: €300 × 25.5% = €76.50
- Electricity tax plus transmission fee: ~€600 (identical)
- Annual total: ~€976.50
Difference: roughly €156.50 annually in spot pricing's favour. But this figure obscures risk. If spot prices rise 7 per cent (normal volatility), spot pricing costs €1,045 and fixed pricing wins. A two-year fixed contract at 8.5 cents is therefore the safer option unless you actively monitor prices and adjust consumption.
Preparing for zero-price hours no longer matters for most households
In my view, most households switching from spot back to fixed are doing so for the wrong reason — fear rather than calculation. Although zero-price and negative-price hours rose to 447 hours in 2025, only a small fraction of households exploit them. They demand smart homes, automation, and willingness to shift consumption timing. For ordinary families with an electric car but no intelligent energy management system, zero-price hours are a completely useless feature of spot contracts.
What should you do right now?
If you hold a fixed contract at 8–9 cents expiring in 2026–2027, do not rush to switch to spot pricing. New fixed-contract rates have climbed to 8.5–9.5 cents. The savings from switching to spot would be marginal, if any exist at all.
Instead, consider these steps:
- Invest in smart home technology. To gain spot pricing advantages, you need load management capability. Beyond a smart metre, you require a programmable thermostat, electric-vehicle charging apps that optimise timing, and possibly home battery storage.
- Explore hybrid contracts. Some utilities offer contracts where a portion of consumption locks to fixed rates and another portion tracks spot pricing. This compromise balances security with savings potential.
- Wait until 2027. Two years is a meaningful window. Solar and battery costs continue falling, smart home devices are improving, and the market situation may shift again.
Sources
- Finnish Energy Authority: Electricity surveys and contract types (Tier A)
- Fingrid: Grid operator and market analysis (Tier A)
- Nord Pool: Historical price data and spot data (Tier A)
- Statistics Finland: Household electricity consumption (Tier A)
- Finnish Tax Administration / Energy Authority: Electricity taxes and VAT 2026 (Tier A)
- Datahub: Metering data and supplier integration (Tier A)
- Fortum: Contract types and advice (Tier B)
- Helen: Market comparison and contracts (Tier B)